Washington's 9th District Primary

Five candidates are on today's August 4 ballot in Washington's 9th Congressional District primary, where Democratic incumbent Adam Smith is seeking another term representing a slice of the greater Seattle metropolitan area. The top two finishers advance to the Nov. 3 general election under Washington's nonpartisan top-two system, regardless of party. Voters head to the polls Aug. 4.

The district is anchored in the south King County suburbs, covering communities in the southern Seattle region. It elects a single member to the U.S. House of Representatives, one of Washington's ten congressional seats.

Washington's top-two primary places all candidates on a single ballot. No separate party primaries exist. The two highest vote-getters (whether from the same party or different ones) move on to November. That structure means a Democrat-versus-Democrat general election is possible, though the ballot in this race spans Democrats, Republicans, Independents, and others. Six candidates are already listed for the general election field.

The Candidates

Melissa Chaudry faces incumbent Smith as a Democratic challenger in the race. Douglas Michael Basler is also in the race representing the Republican Party, along with Kshama Sawant representing the Independent Party and Jacob Perasso for the Socialist Workers Party.

Smith has represented the district for decades. In the current Congress, he serves on the House Armed Services Committee, where he has long been a senior member and previously served as ranking member. His tenure makes him one of the more experienced members of the Washington delegation on defense and national security matters.

The Money Behind the Race

All candidates combined raised $2,656,717 in this race, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) records, with Smith raising $1,882,001, keeping nearly $870,000 in cash on hand. Sawant raised $645,401, Basler raised $99,241, and Chaudry raised $30,072. Outside spending, however, has been nearly nonexistent.

Total independent expenditures reported to the FEC through July 1 amount to $10. The sole outside spender on record is Sierra Club Independent Action, which directed the entire $10 in support of Smith. No outside money has been spent opposing any candidate in the race, and no communication costs have been reported.

The $10 figure stands in contrast to the $2,656,717 in total candidate fundraising, suggesting the race has drawn campaign finance activity almost entirely through the candidates themselves rather than outside groups. No super PAC spending, party committee independent expenditures, or other third-party activity appears in the FEC data through the July 1 cutoff.

Ratings vs. Odds

Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate this seat "Solid Democratic." Cook issued its rating July 16, Inside Elections on June 30, and Sabato's Crystal Ball on July 30. The three forecasters are unanimous, with no daylight between them.

Kalshi prediction markets set the Democratic win probability at 98% as of Aug. 3, with the Republican at 2.2%. Trading volume on the race reached $7,758.

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