Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District Primary

Republican incumbent Rep. Bryan Steil (R-WI) holds every structural advantage in a race where Democrats are still sorting out who will challenge him. The Republican primary is a two-candidate field with Steil as the clear frontrunner. The Democratic side is a crowded scramble: eight candidates filed, two have suspended their campaigns and remain on the ballot, and only three are actively campaigning and raising real money.

Wisconsin uses a traditional partisan primary system. Voters participate in separate party contests, with the top vote-getter in each advancing to the general election on Nov. 3. There is no top-two or ranked-choice component. The district covers the southeastern corner of the state, anchored by the Racine and Kenosha metro areas along Lake Michigan and stretching inland to the Janesville-Beloit corridor. The mix of mid-sized industrial cities and surrounding rural communities has trended Republican in recent cycles, and every major race rater currently reflects that lean.

The Candidates

Republican Primary

Bryan Steil has held this seat since 2019, winning it with the backing of his predecessor, former House Speaker Paul Ryan. Now in his fourth term, Steil chairs the Committee on House Administration and sits on the House Financial Services Committee, where he also chairs the Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Artificial Intelligence Subcommittee. His recent legislative activity includes sponsoring the Voter ID Act, which would require photo identification to vote in federal elections, and the Earned Wage Access Consumer Protection Act, both introduced in June. He entered the 2026 cycle with nearly $5 million cash on hand and has since built that war chest to $6.3 million as of July 22, according to FEC filings compiled by Inside Elections and Ballotpedia.

Connor Walleck has filed to challenge Steil in the Republican primary. No additional verified biographical details were available from the FEC at the time of publication. Jose Vera also filed to run in the Republican primary but has since withdrawn or been disqualified, according to Ballotpedia, and will not appear on the Aug. 11 ballot.

Democratic Primary

Mitchell Berman has emerged as one of the most prominent Democrats in the race. An emergency room nurse from Racine County and former Milwaukee VA hospital nurse, Berman spent roughly a decade in VA healthcare before leaving to run. He announced his campaign in August 2025 and has built the field's largest grassroots fundraising base: more than $712,000 raised to date, according to FEC filings, including a self-reported total of over 15,000 donors at an average donation of $33. His campaign has centered on healthcare access and affordability.

Lorenzo Santos, a Navy veteran, is running his second campaign for this nomination. He stepped aside in 2024 to support another candidate, then re-entered the race in February 2026. His platform focuses on affordability, healthcare, and what he describes as a democracy in crisis.

Miguel Aranda brings local elected experience to the field. He serves as vice president of the Whitewater School District school board and works as associate director of the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater's college readiness program. He has emphasized his community ties across a district that spans Racine, Kenosha, most of Walworth County, and parts of Rock and Milwaukee counties.

Randy Bryce, the union ironworker known as "Iron Stache" who drew national attention with his 2018 challenge to then-Speaker Ryan, entered the 2026 race in May 2025 but suspended his campaign in June. He remains on the ballot.

Peter Burgelis suspended his campaign in July and also remains on the ballot.

Gage Stills, Enrique Casiano, and Travis Beckius round out the Democratic field but have reported little to no fundraising activity, and no additional verified biographical details were available for these three candidates from the FEC at the time of publication. Candidate suspensions may affect ballot composition depending on state filing rules. Voters should verify current ballot status with the Wisconsin Elections Commission before Aug. 11.

The Money Behind the Race

Steil leads the field by a wide margin, having raised $5.5 million and reported $6.3 million cash on hand as of July 22. Berman is a distant second among active fundraisers, with more than $712,000 raised and $151,644 cash on hand as of the same date. The rest of the Democratic field trails well behind: Bryce, Santos, Burgelis, and Aranda have each raised under $60,000, and Stills, Casiano, and Beckius have reported no significant fundraising activity.

Ratings vs. Odds

Cook Political Report rated the seat Likely Republican as of July 16, and Sabato's Crystal Ball matched that rating as of July 30. The consensus forecast, also as of July 30, likewise carries a Likely Republican designation. Inside Elections goes a step further, rating the district Solid Republican, a designation it has held since March 12 and reaffirmed as recently as Aug. 4.

Prediction markets track with the ratings. On Kalshi, Republicans hold a 73% probability of winning the general election versus 25% for Democrats, based on $19,532 in trading volume as of Aug. 7, 12:00 p.m ET. The market has not broken out primary probabilities separately, so those figures reflect the general election contest, regardless of who emerges from the Aug. 11 primaries.

Public polling on the race remains thin. A poll conducted March 14-16 by Ragnar Research Partners for Conservatives for America, a Republican-aligned sponsor, showed Steil leading Berman 50% to 41% in a named matchup. A generic-ballot question in the same poll found Democrats ahead by two points, 44% to 42%, a gap that illustrates how much of Steil's edge in named matchups may rest on incumbent name recognition rather than broader district sentiment.

The combination of an entrenched incumbent, a commanding cash advantage, and uniform ratings in Republican-favorable territory means Democrats will need both a strong nominee and a shift in the district's political environment to be competitive in November.

*Financial figures are drawn from FEC data as compiled by Inside Elections and Ballotpedia, current as of July 22, 2026. Race ratings reflect the most recent available designations from* *Cook Political Report**,* *Sabato's Crystal Ball**, and* *Inside Elections**. Prediction market probabilities are from* *Kalshi* *as of Aug. 7, 2026. Candidate ballot status should be confirmed with the Wisconsin Elections Commission.*

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