Wisconsin's 3rd District Primary

Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI) holds every structural advantage an incumbent could want in Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District: a cash-on-hand lead in the millions, a seat he's won twice, and no opponents on his ballot. The real contest is on the Democratic side, where two candidates are fighting for the chance to face him this November 3rd.

Wisconsin runs an open partisan primary: voters don't need to register with a party, but they pick one party's ballot per election. The winners advance to the general election, where they'll join independents Alexander Valiensi Kent and Rustin Provance, who are already confirmed on the ballot. The 3rd District runs along western Wisconsin's Mississippi River corridor, taking in mid-sized cities, rural communities and river valley towns including La Crosse and Eau Claire. Candidates across the race have raised nearly $16.9 million combined, and every major ratings organization calls the November contest a toss-up.

The Candidates

Van Orden, a retired Navy SEAL, flipped this seat in 2022, ending more than two decades of Democratic representation. He won reelection in 2024 with 51.3% of the vote and won that primary unopposed. He sits on the House Committees on Veterans' Affairs, where he chairs the Economic Opportunity Subcommittee, Agriculture, and Armed Services. His legislative work has centered on veterans' programs, including the House Our Heroes Act, and on agricultural issues that reflect the district's rural makeup. He enters this primary with around $4.7 million in cash-on-hand.

On the Democratic side, Rebecca Cooke is running for the third consecutive cycle. A nonprofit founder and former campaign consultant from Eau Claire, she finished second in the 2022 Democratic primary before losing narrowly to Van Orden in the 2024 general election, and has described this as her third and final campaign. She identifies as a Blue Dog Democrat and has assembled an endorsement coalition spanning U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, Sen. Bernie Sanders, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and the Wisconsin AFL-CIO. She leads Democratic candidates in fundraising.

Emily Berge is challenging Cooke from a more grassroots-oriented position. A licensed therapist and former president of the Eau Claire City Council, Berge has the endorsement of Citizen Action of Wisconsin and is positioning herself as an outsider alternative to Cooke's more establishment-aligned campaign.

The Money Behind the Race

Cooke leads all candidates in fundraising, having raised $8,601,146 to Van Orden's $7,526,052, a gap of roughly $1.1 million. Berge trails both by a wide margin, having raised $728,722. Van Orden holds the largest campaign war chest heading into the primary, with $4,677,029 in cash on hand against Cooke's $1,826,605 and Berge's $105,964, a reflection of his lower burn rate rather than a fundraising edge. A fourth Democrat, Laura Benjamin, raised $32,066 before withdrawing from the race.

The two frontrunners draw from different donor bases. Small-dollar contributions of $200 and under make up 37.5% of Cooke's haul ($3,228,512) against 24% from contributions of $2,000 and up ($2,752,154). Outside groups have added $231,021 in independent expenditures to the race. Law Enforcement for a Safer America PAC is the largest single spender at $153,880, roughly two-thirds of all outside money, followed by the Wisco Project PAC at $66,580, both donating to Van Orden.

Ratings vs. Odds

Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rate Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District as a toss-up, as of their most recent weekly review on Aug. 4. On Kalshi, the Democratic Party is priced at 71% to win the seat against 33% for the Republican Party as of early August.

Raters are saying neither side sees a clear favorite, yet the Kalshi split lean less towards a toss-up and more toward the Democrats. The thing worth watching most is whether Kalshi's number reflects a general election matchup that isn't set yet, meaning it may likely move once Tuesday's Democratic primary produces a nominee.

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