Wisconsin's 7th District Primary

Five Republicans are on the ballot to replace Rep. Tom Tiffany in Wisconsin's 7th Congressional District, and outside groups have already spent more than $2.8 million trying to decide the outcome before a single vote is counted. Tiffany, who has held the seat since 2020, is leaving it to run for governor. What was expected to be a routine handoff in one of the most reliably Republican districts in the Midwest has instead turned into one of the more expensive primary fights in the state this cycle, with nearly all of the outside money split between two candidates.

The Republican field started with six candidates but is down to five after Ashland attorney Paul Wassgren, who had raised more than any other candidate in the race, suspended his campaign on April 21. Wassgren cited a desire to avoid a "bloody and highly expensive primary" that he said would only help Democrats, and he's since campaigned for Tiffany's gubernatorial bid. Three Democrats are also on the ballot. A sixth Republican, Cheryl Ann Runkel, is running as a write-in.

The 7th District covers the northern and western reaches of Wisconsin, the state's largest congressional district by geography, spanning roughly 20 counties of Northwoods timber country, farmland, and lakes running from Wausau in the south to Superior on Lake Superior's western tip. The district's economy has long centered on logging, agriculture, and outdoor recreation, and it has voted reliably Republican for more than a decade.

Wisconsin uses a traditional partisan primary. Republicans and Democrats each choose a nominee on the same day, Aug. 11, with the top vote-getter in each party advancing to the Nov. 3 general election. There's no runoff and no ranked choice component.

The Candidates

#### Republican Primary

Michael Alfonso is 26 years old and was raised in Wausau. He's the son-in-law of former Rep. Sean Duffy, who held this seat before becoming U.S. Transportation Secretary, and he's making his first run for any office. Alfonso has President Donald Trump's endorsement, who called him a "MAGA warrior," and Duffy has campaigned alongside him and directed $1 million from his old congressional account to a PAC backing his candidacy. Alfonso's lack of political experience has drawn criticism from some Republicans in the district, making this primary a real test of how far a presidential endorsement and family connections carry a candidate without a personal record behind them.

Kevin Hermening is a financial planner from Wausau and former chairman of the Marathon County Republican Party. His biography stands apart from the rest of the field: at 20, he was a U.S. Marine sergeant among the Americans taken hostage in Iran in November 1979, and he spent 444 days in captivity before his release. He's campaigning on decades of local roots and party involvement. His campaign was the target of ballot signature challenges filed by Ebben's campaign manager, challenges the Wisconsin Elections Commission unanimously rejected.

Jessi Ebben is a public relations executive from Stanley with farming roots in the district and a degree from the University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire. She describes herself as a Trump Republican focused on economic opportunity and has campaigned on visiting every county in the district. Her campaign manager filed ballot challenges against both Alfonso and Hermening, which the Elections Commission also rejected unanimously.

Niina Threlfall-Baum owns a marketing agency in Rhinelander and grew up on a dairy farm in Price County. She's positioning herself as a moderate, pledging to accept no corporate PAC money, and completed a 400-mile bike tour across the district as part of her campaign. Don Raihala, a Superior-based accountant, real estate broker, and home builder, is making his fourth run for the seat, having previously run in 2010, 2014, and 2016.

#### Democratic Primary

Fred Clark brings the most political experience of any Democrat in the field. He served in the Wisconsin State Assembly from 2009 to 2015, representing the Baraboo area, and is a professional forester who owns Clark Forestry, Inc. He's argued that Congress has failed working people and has compared his independent streak to that of Republican Sen. Rand Paul.

Ginger Murray is a Northwoods native and attorney who served as city attorney for Crandon and town attorney for Laona. She sought a state Assembly seat roughly 26 years ago and is returning to electoral politics on the strength of her legal background. Chris Armstrong runs an IT company with offices in Hudson and New Richmond, where he has worked for three decades. He's emphasizing government accountability and casting his private sector background as a contrast to career politicians.

The Money Behind the Race

Six Republicans and three Democrats have filed financial reports with the FEC for this race. Ordered by total receipts: Alfonso raised $1,351,546, with $663,408 cash on hand. Hermening raised $1,180,818, with $206,282 on hand. Ebben raised $528,023, with $294,453 on hand. Clark raised $423,041, with $173,977 on hand. Murray raised $159,921, with $21,000 on hand. Armstrong raised $36,724, with $170 on hand. Threlfall-Baum raised $25,274, with $4,249 on hand. Wassgren raised $3,403,946, the most of any candidate, before suspending his campaign in April; his fundraising was heavily loan-funded and isn't a meaningful comparison point for the active field. Raihala has not filed a financial report with the FEC.

Donor composition varies sharply by candidate. Alfonso's fundraising leans heavily on large donors: $806,022 of his total, about 60 percent, came from contributions of $2,000 or more. Ebben's donor base is similarly top-heavy, with $257,531 of her total, about 49 percent, coming from that same bracket. Clark's fundraising is more evenly spread across contribution sizes, with over a third coming from donations of $200 or less.

Outside groups have reported $2,800,801 in independent expenditures in this race, all of it support spending, with no opposition expenditures on file. Two PACs account for nearly all of it: Northwoods Future PAC spent $2,030,747 backing Alfonso, and Northwoods PAC spent $738,833 backing Ebben, together more than 98 percent of all outside spending. Club for Growth PAC added $22,083 for Ebben, and Turning Point PAC Inc. added $8,820 for Alfonso, bringing Alfonso's total outside support to $2,039,566 and Ebben's to $760,916. No outside spending appears on behalf of Hermening, Threlfall-Baum, Raihala, or any Democratic candidate.

Ratings vs. Odds

Cook Political Report and Inside Elections both rate the seat Solid Republican, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Safe Republican, as of Aug. 4. None of the three national raters has moved off that call this cycle, a reflection of how lopsided the district is rather than a sign of any recent reassessment.

On Kalshi, Alfonso is priced to win the Republican nomination at 95 percent, with Hermening at 7% and Ebben at 6%. On the Democratic side, Clark is priced at 97%. Both primary markets carried modest trading volume, $7,182 for the Republican contest and $3,591 for the Democratic one. Separately, Kalshi's general-election market prices Republicans to hold the seat in November at 91.6%, against 9.3% for Democrats, regardless of which Republican wins Aug. 11. Between the ratings and the markets, there's no real tension here: both point toward a Republican victory come the general election. The genuine uncertainty in this race isn't partisan; it's who comes out of the Republican primary, and both the money and the market data currently point toward Alfonso.

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