Wyoming Senate Primary

Harriet Hageman, the incumbent U.S. House member who toppled Liz Cheney four years ago, is now seeking a promotion to the Senate. Wyoming's Aug. 18 Republican Senate primary will help determine who succeeds retiring Republican Sen. Cynthia Lummis, and Hageman enters the contest with endorsements from President Donald Trump and Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY). Four other Republicans are challenging her. Democrats will hold their own contested primary the same day in a state that has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator since the 1970s.

The election is for Wyoming's Class II Senate seat, which Lummis has held since 2021. Lummis announced in December that she would not seek a second term, creating an open-seat contest. Hageman entered the race days later.

The Candidates

Republican Primary

Harriet Hageman has represented Wyoming's at-large House district since 2023 after defeating then-Rep. Liz Cheney in the 2022 Republican primary with Trump's backing. She was reelected in 2024 with more than 70% of the vote. In the House, she serves on the Natural Resources and Judiciary committees. Her legislative work has focused heavily on federal land management, energy development, agriculture and limiting federal regulatory authority.

Hageman announced her Senate campaign Dec. 23, shortly after Lummis announced her retirement. Trump endorsed her within hours, and Barrasso subsequently endorsed her candidacy.

Sam Mead is a fifth-generation Wyomingite and member of the family behind Wyoming Whiskey. He has worked in technology and previously served as head distiller for the family business. Mead is also the nephew of former Republican Gov. Matt Mead. His campaign emphasizes Wyoming's energy and agricultural industries, public lands, and reducing federal regulatory burdens.

Jimmy Skovgard is a former Wyoming Army National Guard member and business owner. His campaign emphasizes constitutional conservatism and term limits. John Holtz is a Laramie attorney and U.S. Air Force veteran who has previously sought federal office, including multiple campaigns for U.S. Senate. Jill Edwards, of Laramie, is also competing for the Republican nomination.

Democratic Primary

James Byrd is a former member of the Wyoming House of Representatives, where he represented District 44 in Cheyenne from 2009 to 2019. He is the son of former state Rep. Liz Byrd, the first Black woman to serve in the Wyoming Legislature. Byrd previously ran for Wyoming secretary of state in 2018.

Billy Benavidez, of Sheridan, is a political newcomer who has worked in landscaping and sales. He has described his candidacy as an outsider campaign built around Wyoming's working-class communities.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside groups have reported $203,655 in confirmed independent expenditures in this race, with Federal Election Commission (FEC) periodic-filing coverage running through July 1. An additional $904,966 in pending expenditures, filed as 24- and 48-hour notices through Aug. 10, would bring the combined total to $1,108,621. No communication costs have been reported, and no group has filed opposition spending against any candidate.

The Senate Conservatives Fund leads all groups in confirmed spending at $135,237, with another $30,124 pending. Senate Conservatives Action has spent $57,741. Club for Growth PAC has reported $10,677 in confirmed disbursements. Club for Growth Action has $25,749 pending.

Two groups account for the bulk of pending activity. Defend American Jobs has $515,838 in pending notices, and American Mission has $333,254 pending. Neither has yet filed periodic reports in this race.

By candidate, the confirmed figures show Lummis leading with $109,523 in outside support. Hageman trails her in confirmed spending at $94,132, but the pending notices tell a different story: Hageman carries $879,217 in pending expenditures, giving her a pending-inclusive total of $973,349, nearly nine times Lummis's combined figure. Mead has no confirmed outside spending but $25,749 pending on his behalf. No candidate has any opposition spending on record.

On the direct-contribution side, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) leads all identified contributors at $124,000. Individual donor Jay W. Faison contributed $22,000. The Peabody Energy Corporation Political Action Committee (Peabody PAC) gave $21,500, reflecting Wyoming's coal industry's presence in the race. Nine additional political action committees each contributed $20,000, including Alabama First PAC, Arkansas for Leadership Political Action Committee (ArkPAC), Common Values PAC, and Heartland Values PAC, among others. Koch, Inc. Political Action Committee (KochPAC) and the American Crystal Sugar Company Political Action Committee each gave $15,000.

Ratings vs. Odds

Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate Wyoming's Class II Senate seat Solid Republican as of early August 2026. The three raters are in full agreement, and the consensus designation carries the same label.

On Kalshi, the Republican nominee holds a 97.3% win probability against the Democratic nominee's 2.7% as of Aug. 7, based on $12,555 in trading volume. The market reflects the broad consensus that the primary, not the general election, is the decisive contest for this seat.

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