Florida's 2nd Congressional District Primary
Eight Republicans and four Democrats compete in Florida's 2nd Congressional District primaries on Aug. 18, fighting for an open Panhandle seat that the major election forecasters rate Solid Republican heading into November.
The district stretches across North Florida and the central Panhandle, including Tallahassee, Panama City and surrounding rural communities. Rep. Neal Dunn (R-FL), who has represented the district since 2017, announced in January that he would not seek reelection, opening the seat for the first time in a decade.
Republicans
Evan Power chairs the Republican Party of Florida, a position he has held since 2024, and has previously chaired the Leon County Republican Party. His campaign emphasizes support for President Donald Trump's agenda, economic issues and conservative governance.
Keith Gross is a businessman, attorney and Army veteran who has largely self-financed his campaign. Gross previously sought federal office in Florida and enters the closing stretch with by far the largest total receipts of any candidate in the field.
Luke Murphy is a retired Army sergeant, Iraq War veteran and Purple Heart recipient who entered the race in February.
Austin Rogers is an attorney who previously served as general counsel to Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL). His campaign has also benefited from substantial outside spending through Panhandle Patriots PAC.
Jim Norton is the Gulf County school superintendent and previously worked as a field representative for former Rep. Allen Boyd (D-FL). Audie Rowell is a retired Walton County chief sheriff's deputy. Nick Lewis is a Republican candidate whose campaign has been heavily self-financed, with most of his reported receipts coming from a candidate loan. Lee Jones also qualified for the Republican primary.
Democrats
Yen Bailey is an attorney who was the Democratic nominee against Dunn in 2024. She previously worked for more than a decade as an ethics attorney with The Florida Bar and as an attorney with Florida's Guardian ad Litem Program.
Brice Barnes entered the race in April and has substantially self-financed his campaign, contributing more than $215,000 of his own money through July 29.
Amanda Green has built her campaign primarily through individual contributions, which accounted for more than $340,000 of her receipts through July 29. Nicholas Zateslo is the other candidate running in the Democratic primary.
The Money Behind the Race
Gross has reported the most money in the race by a wide margin, although nearly all of it came from his own loans to the campaign. Keith Gross for Florida reported $12,325,575 in total receipts through July 29, according to the Federal Election Commission. Gross loaned his campaign $12,220,420, while individual donors contributed $98,154. His campaign reported $11,329,071 in total disbursements, including $9 million in repayments of candidate loans, and had $1,002,280 in cash on hand.
Rogers reported $1,010,277 in receipts through July 29. His campaign received $628,432 from individual contributors, while Rogers loaned the campaign $375,000. The committee spent $623,248 and had $387,029 in cash on hand, along with $377,218 in debt.
Power reported $727,093 in receipts, including $549,277 from individual contributors and a $150,000 candidate loan. His campaign spent $464,183 and had $262,909 in cash on hand through July 29.
Norton reported $411,786 in receipts, nearly all from individual contributions. His campaign spent $400,388 and had $11,398 in cash on hand through July 29.
Murphy reported $280,409.56 in receipts, including $277,409.56 from individuals. His campaign spent $124,051 and entered the closing weeks with $156,358.24 in cash on hand and no reported debt.
Rowell reported $117,948 in receipts, almost entirely from individuals. His campaign spent $90,724 and had $27,224 in cash on hand through July 29.
Lewis reported $95,001 in receipts, including a $94,000 candidate loan and just $1,001 in individual contributions. His campaign spent $94,031 and had $970 in cash on hand.
Among Democrats, Zateslo reported $449,913 in receipts through July 29. His campaign received $302,046 from individual contributors, $42,618 in candidate contributions and $104,500 in candidate loans. Zateslo's committee spent $426,108 and reported $23,624 in cash on hand.
Green reported $348,120.08 in receipts, including $340,373 from individual contributors. Her campaign spent $320,083 and had $28,038 in cash on hand through July 29.
Barnes reported $317,996 in receipts after entering the race in April. Barnes contributed $215,100 to his own campaign, while other individuals contributed $102,897. His campaign spent $240,837 and had $77,160 in cash on hand.
Bailey reported $177,869 in receipts through July 29, including $160,994 from individual contributors and a $13,000 candidate loan. Her campaign spent $141,492 and had $51,848 in cash on hand.
Outside groups have also spent heavily in the Republican primary. Panhandle Patriots PAC, a super PAC associated with efforts supporting Rogers, reported $1,582,340 in independent expenditures through July 29. The PAC reported $2 million in receipts and $1.63 million in total disbursements during the same period.
Ratings vs. Odds
The major election forecasters agree Republicans are heavily favored to retain Florida's 2nd Congressional District despite Dunn's retirement.
The Cook Political Report rates the open seat Solid Republican and gives the district an R+8 Partisan Voting Index. Inside Elections also rates the district Solid Republican, with a Republican baseline advantage of more than 17 percentage points.
Prediction markets show an even stronger Republican advantage. Kalshi currently gives Republicans a 93.4% probability of winning the Nov. 3 general election, compared with roughly 9.5% for Democrats, on approximately $22,861 in trading volume.
Kalshi's separate Republican primary market gives Rogers the highest probability of winning the nomination, followed by Gross and Power, though those prices can change rapidly before voting concludes.
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