Florida's 5th District Primary

Republican Rep. John Rutherford faces conservative challenger Mark Kaye in Florida's 5th Congressional District primary on Aug. 18, while five Democrats compete for their party's nomination. The major election forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican, making the Republican nominee the heavy favorite heading into November.

Florida's 5th Congressional District sits in northeastern Florida, covering Duval and St. Johns counties and anchored by the Jacksonville area.

This is not an open seat. Rutherford has represented the district since 2017 and won reelection in 2024 with 63.1% of the vote. He faces Kaye in the Republican primary, while Rachel Grage, David Drew, Eli Johnson, Alex Hazen and Mark Heggestad are competing for the Democratic nomination.

The Candidates

Republican Primary

Rutherford, a former three-term sheriff of Duval County, has represented the district since January 2017. He graduated from Florida State University with a degree in criminology. His law enforcement background has shaped his legislative priorities in Congress, where he serves on the House Appropriations Committee.

In the 119th Congress, Rutherford introduced the bipartisan Officer Leslie Coffelt U.S. Secret Service Police Act of 2026, which would rename the U.S. Secret Service Uniformed Division as the U.S. Secret Service Police. He also introduced the bipartisan Federal Agents Secure Travel Act, or FAST Act, which would provide federal law enforcement officers with free Transportation Security Administration PreCheck.

Defense, aerospace and other corporate political action committees have contributed heavily to Rutherford's campaign. His FEC filings show that contributions from other political committees account for more than $450,000 of his receipts through July 29.

Mark Kaye spent years as a Jacksonville radio host and conservative podcaster before launching his congressional bid. He has positioned himself as an anti-establishment alternative to Rutherford and has criticized the incumbent as insufficiently conservative.

Democratic Primary

Rachel Grage is an engineer who previously ran for the Florida Legislature before entering the congressional race. A New York native who moved to Florida in 2019, she earned bachelor's and master's degrees in engineering from Tulane University and has worked in legislative advocacy.

Alex Hazen is a health care simulation developer who builds virtual training simulations for nurses. He earned a bachelor's degree in game design and development from Rochester Institute of Technology. His campaign has emphasized housing affordability, government reform and technology issues.

Mark Heggestad is running on a platform emphasizing affordability, health care, education, environmental protection and government reform.

David Drew and Eli Johnson also qualified for the Democratic primary. Both have registered candidate committees with the Federal Election Commission, although the FEC does not currently display meaningful campaign finance activity for either candidate.

The Money Behind the Race

Rutherford holds the largest campaign account in the race. Citizens for John Rutherford reported $726,727 in total receipts from Jan. 1, 2025, through July 29, according to the Federal Election Commission. That included $273,968 from individual contributors and $452,500 from other political committees. His campaign reported $635,666 in disbursements and entered the closing weeks of the primary with $268,730 in cash on hand and no reported debt.

Rachel Grage reported $248,286 in receipts through June 30, the latest financial summary currently displayed on her FEC candidate page. Nearly all of that money came from individuals, with $246,787 in individual contributions and another $1,191 in candidate contributions. Her campaign reported $135,459 in disbursements and $112,827 in cash on hand.

Mark Heggestad reported $52,519 in receipts through July 29, including $22,519 in individual contributions and $30,000 in candidate contributions. His campaign spent $37,171 and reported $15,597 in cash on hand with no debt.

Mark Kaye reported $31,456 in receipts through July 29. His campaign received $30,460 from individual contributors, along with $795 in candidate contributions and $200 from a party committee. Kaye's committee reported $27,038 in disbursements and $4,418 in cash on hand, with no debt.

Alex Hazen's latest FEC financial summary covers activity through June 30. His campaign reported $16,795 in receipts, including $12,104 in individual contributions and $4,691 in candidate loans. Hazen reported $11,477 in disbursements and $5,318 in cash on hand.

Ratings vs. Odds

The major election forecasters agree that Republicans are heavily favored to retain Florida's 5th Congressional District. The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections rate the district Solid Republican. Rutherford's 63.1% victory in 2024 also reflects the Republican advantage built into the district heading into the midterm election.

Prediction markets point in the same direction. On Kalshi, Republicans are heavily favored to win the Nov. 3 general election. The ratings and prediction market therefore tell the same basic story: the Republican nominee enters November as the strong favorite.

The Aug. 18 primaries will determine whether Rutherford or Kaye carries the Republican nomination and which of the five Democratic candidates advances to challenge the GOP nominee.

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