Who's In the Race

Rep. John Rutherford (R-FL) faces Democrat Rachel Grage in the Nov. 3 general election in Florida's 5th Congressional District. The district is voting under new congressional boundaries in 2026. ​

Rutherford has represented the district since 2017, after a career in law enforcement that began in 1974 and included three terms as Duval County sheriff. He won the Republican primary on Aug. 18 with about 68 percent of the vote over Mark Kaye.

Grage earned bachelor's and master's degrees in engineering from Tulane University and worked as a biomedical engineer. She won the Democratic primary with 27,196 votes; the record does not include a vote-share percentage for her result, with Alexander Hazen finishing second.

What They Stand For

Rutherford's official House issues page lists military and veterans as a major issue area, along with:

  • Stewardship of Florida's environment, which he describes as central to the state's economy and way of life,
  • Immigration as a policy issue, including criticism of border crossings,
  • Health care and the economy as key issue areas; and
  • Protecting privacy rights, including medical privacy.

Grage says she is focused on lowering costs for families and expanding healthcare access, and she has said her healthcare-field experience informs that work, according to her campaign website.

She has also supported:

  • Fighting for lower insurance costs and expanded healthcare access,
  • Defending coastal ecosystems, expanding conservation funding and investing in disaster resilience, according to Local Candidates; and
  • Protecting privacy rights, including medical privacy rights.

The Money Behind the Race

Federal Election Commission filings show John Rutherford raised about $727,000 through July 29 and had about $269,000 in cash on hand. Grage raised about $272,000 through the same date and had about $91,000 in the bank, according to FEC filings.

Outside spending in the race totals $250, all of it supporting Rutherford. RNJ 2 Save America is a top spender as of Oct. 13, and Equality Florida Action has reported $12.5 in pending support for Grage.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Republican as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 2. Kalshi traders gave Republicans, whose nominee is Rutherford, a 91.91 percent chance of winning as of Oct. 13, with Democrats, whose nominee is Grage, at 8.09 percent.

Rutherford carried the district with 100 percent of the vote in 2022 and about 63 percent in 2024. Republicans held 20 of Florida's 28 U.S. House seats after both the 2022 and 2024 elections, with Democrats holding eight. Donald Trump carried Florida in the 2024 presidential election with about 56 percent of the vote.

Florida's statewide voter-registration deadline was Monday, Oct. 5. Mail-ballot applications are due by Thursday, Oct. 22, at 5 p.m., according to the Florida Department of State, Division of Elections. In Duval County, early voting runs Tuesday, Oct. 20, through Friday, Oct. 23, from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m., and Saturday, Oct. 24, through Sunday, Oct. 25, from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m.; other counties in the district may set different schedules. On Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time.

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