The Winner

If you live in Florida's 5th U.S. House District, you will continue to be represented in Congress by John Rutherford (R-FL), who won re-election on November 3, 2026. Rutherford took about 56.4 percent of the vote, or roughly 187,877 votes, against Democrat Rachel Grage, who took about 43.6 percent, or roughly 145,081 votes, a margin of about 42,796 votes, according to preliminary results from Ballotpedia; vote totals may change until the state certifies. ​

The Race

Grage, the Democratic opponent, advanced from the Aug. 18, 2026, Democratic primary to reach the general election ballot. Cook Political Report rated the seat Solid Republican, Inside Elections also rated it Solid Republican, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Safe Republican.

The district spans Citrus, Hernando, Sumter, Lake and Levy counties, along with most of Pasco County, portions of Marion and Polk counties, the northern suburbs of Tampa and the western suburbs of Orlando, according to Ballotpedia. The district has a total population of about 818,500, a median household income of about $89,300, and a median age of 39.2, according to Geographies data for the district; about 46.3 percent of adults hold a bachelor's degree or higher, the population is about 66.4 percent white, 12.7 percent Hispanic, 11.8 percent Black and 5.9 percent Asian, the unemployment rate is about 3.2 percent, and about 9.5 percent of residents live below the poverty line.

The 2026 race ran under a new district map that Gov. Ron DeSantis signed on May 4; in 2022, Rutherford won without appearing on the general-election ballot at all. Rutherford's 2026 winning margin of about 12.8 percentage points, or roughly 42,796 votes, is narrower than his 2024 margin of 26.2 points, or 110,901 votes, over Democrat Jay McGovern. Total votes cast in the 2026 general election, about 332,958, were fewer than the roughly 424,064 cast in 2024, a drop of about 91,106 votes.

What's Next

The next term for this seat starts on January 3, 2027, the date set by the 20th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. Rutherford said he intends to keep pressing for more accurate recreational-fishing data and longer fishing seasons, particularly for South Atlantic red snapper, and cited his Fisheries Data Modernization and Accuracy Act as a vehicle for that goal, according to a statement on Congressman John Rutherford's official House website dated Oct. 1, 2026.

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