Kansas's 4th District Primary

Voters in south-central Kansas head to the polls Aug. 4 for the Kansas 4th District primary, choosing nominees in both parties for one of the state's most reliably Republican congressional seats. Incumbent Rep. Ron Estes faces a single challenger in the Republican primary, while six Democrats compete for the right to face him in November.

Kansas runs a traditional partisan primary: each party holds its own vote, and the top finisher advances to the general election, set for Nov. 3. The general election ballot will include candidates from the Democratic, Republican, Libertarian, and Independent parties. There are no runoff provisions; plurality wins.

The 4th District covers south-central Kansas, anchored by Wichita, the state's largest city, and the surrounding region. Eleven active candidates are in the race across all parties, with 12 names slated for the November ballot. Combined, all candidates have raised approximately $2.19 million.

The Candidates

Republicans

Ron Estes first won this seat in a 2017 special election and has held it since, now seeking another term in the 119th Congress. He sits on the House Committee on Ways and Means, including its Subcommittee on Tax and its Subcommittee on Social Security, where he chairs the subcommittee. He also serves on the House Budget Committee and the Joint Economic Committee. In the current Congress, Estes has sponsored the Ensuring Seniors' Access to Quality Care Act and the EBITDA Act, and he voted in favor of the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act.

Frank McCollum, a fourth-generation farmer and retired nurse from Greenwood County, is challenging Estes from the right. McCollum's campaign cites 70 years of farming experience and criticizes Estes for his votes on war powers and tariffs. He frames himself as an agriculture-first candidate with the kind of practical economic experience Washington lacks.

Democrats

The Democratic field lists six candidates, though the race has effectively narrowed to two active contenders heading into Aug. 4.

Chris Carmichael is a retired U.S. Army and Air Force colonel who completed 31 years of combined military service before moving into the aerospace industry. Now an aerospace executive, the Andover resident has centered his campaign on affordability for Kansas families. He picked up the endorsement of fellow Democrat Cole Epley after Epley dropped out of the race.

Katy Tyndell, a Wichita attorney and business owner, entered the race in March 2026. Her family has lived in Kansas for five generations, and she holds a degree from Stanford University. Her campaign has focused on healthcare access. Reporting from KWCH identified Tyndell and Carmichael as the two candidates who have defined the Democratic contest heading into primary day.

Cole Epley, a former social worker from Andover, withdrew from the race and endorsed Carmichael but will remain on the Aug. 4 ballot. Ryan Gilbert is a legal assistant and business partner at a Wichita law firm. Jordan Mitchell and Daniel Schneider also filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to run in the Democratic primary; no verified public information about their backgrounds or campaign activity was available at the time of publication.

The Money Behind the Race

No outside spending has been reported in this race as of July 27. Total fundraising across all candidates reached $2.19 million, though the data does not include a per-candidate breakdown.

Ratings vs. Odds

Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate the Kansas 4th Congressional District as Solid Republican. Cook and Sabato issued that rating as of July 16; Inside Elections last updated its rating June 30. The consensus rating, aggregated as of July 23, matches: Solid Republican across the board.

Kalshi prediction markets put the Republican nominee's probability of winning the general election at 95.6%, with the Democratic nominee at 4.5%. That market had recorded $6,478 in trading volume as of July 26.

The ratings and the odds both point to the same conclusion: the Aug. 4 Republican primary is the race that matters most for determining who holds this seat come January. Whoever emerges from each party's primary will face a November electorate that every major forecaster expects to favor the Republican nominee by a wide margin.

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*Candidate ballot status and withdrawal information can be confirmed with the Kansas Secretary of State's office. FEC filings for candidates in this race are publicly available at fec.gov.*

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