Who's In the Race

Rep. Ron Estes (R-KS) faces Democrat Katy Tyndell and Libertarian Drew Cranmer in the November 3 general election in Kansas's 4th District. ​

Estes has represented Kansas's 4th District since 2017, previously serving as Sedgwick County Treasurer and Kansas State Treasurer; he trained as a civil engineer and worked in aerospace, energy and manufacturing before entering Congress. He won the Aug. 4 Republican primary with about 81% of the vote over Frank McCollum, carrying 67,464 votes to McCollum's 15,961 out of 83,425 cast.

Tyndell is an attorney and business owner who helps run her family's Kansas oil and gas company; she previously worked as a staff attorney for the National Congress of American Indians and co-founded Leading Kansas, a civic engagement organization, in 2025. She won the Aug. 4 Democratic primary with about 66% of the vote over runner-up Chris Carmichael, who received about 22%.

Cranmer is a data engineer and software entrepreneur who co-founded a church-management software company.

What They Stand For

Estes has called himself "proudly pro-life" and supports preventing taxpayer funds from paying for abortions, according to his campaign website. He's also supported:

  • Making tax cuts permanent, expanding the Child Tax Credit and eliminating taxes on overtime and tips,
  • Reducing federal regulation and spending to encourage economic growth,
  • Free and fair trade and lower regulatory and tax burdens on agriculture and family farms; and
  • A balanced-budget amendment paired with a 1% across-the-board spending reduction while protecting the armed services.

Tyndell has proposed ensuring access to affordable health care for all Kansans, including better access to mental health services, according to her campaign website. She's also supported:

  • Standing up for working people, small businesses and families, and seeking common ground to lower costs and taxes on working Kansans,
  • Reversing tariffs she says are hurting Kansas farmers, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, ending the Iran war, and opposing industrial encroachment and pesticide deregulation that threaten rural communities,
  • Policies to make artificial intelligence a job creator rather than a job killer, with protections for workers and families; and
  • Online privacy protections, particularly for young people, and stronger limits on companies' collection of personal data.

Cranmer has proposed that Congress, not the president alone, authorize war and has called for auditing the Federal Reserve and returning authority over education, health care and law enforcement to states and localities, according to his campaign website.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Republican as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Republicans, whose nominee is Estes, a 93.89% chance of winning as of Oct. 15; Democrats, whose nominee is Tyndell, stood at 6.11%.

The district's recent history reinforces that picture. Estes won the seat with about 63% in 2022 and about 65% in 2024, a gain of about two percentage points. Republicans have won three of Kansas's four U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024, with Democrats holding one. Donald Trump carried Kansas in the 2024 presidential election with about 57% of the vote.

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