The Race

Incumbent Steve Scalise is running for re-election against two other candidates for Louisiana's 1st House seat in the primary election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The Republican primary fielded two contenders, while Democrats managed just one.

Ratings

Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all agree that Louisiana's 1st is Solid Republican. That means Republicans are heavily favored to hold the seat.

Prediction Markets

On Kalshi's prediction market, the Republicans are sitting at a 90.52% probability of winning, while Democrats are stuck at 9.48%.

Experts vs. Markets

The expert midterm race ratings say Solid Republican. The prediction markets say 90-plus percent for the GOP. Scalise's seat appears secure.

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