Missouri's 1st Congressional District Primary

Incumbent Democratic Rep. Wesley Bell faces a rematch with the congresswoman he unseated two years ago when Missouri's first Congressional District primary voters head to the polls Aug. fourth. The contest is the decisive event in one of Missouri's most reliably Democratic seats, with the general election on November third expected to be a formality.

Missouri's first district anchors the eastern edge of the state, centered on the city of St. Louis and its surrounding urban communities. It is among the most densely populated districts in Missouri and has voted Democratic in congressional races by wide margins for decades.

Missouri runs a traditional partisan primary: each party holds its own separate contest, and the top vote-getter wins the nomination outright. There is no top-two system, no ranked-choice component, and no runoff. Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian primaries are all scheduled for the same Aug. fourth date. The Democratic primary, with five candidates, is the race that will determine who holds the seat.

Bell won the 2024 general election with 75.9% of the vote after defeating then-incumbent Cori Bush in that year's Democratic primary. He is running for re-election to a seat that all major forecasters rate as safely in Democratic hands.

The Candidates

Wesley Bell is the first-term incumbent. A former St. Louis County prosecuting attorney and public defender with a law degree from the University of Missouri-Columbia, he defeated Bush in the 2024 primary and then won the general by more than 50 percentage points. In the 119th Congress, Bell sits on the House Committee on Armed Services, including its Subcommittees on Strategic Forces and on Tactical Air and Land Forces, and on the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, including its Subcommittees on Federal Law Enforcement and on Health Care and Financial Services. He was also appointed to the House Foreign Affairs Committee. His legislative priorities include criminal justice reform, alternatives to incarceration, and housing. He has secured endorsements from House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Democratic Whip Katherine Clark, and the Congressional Black Caucus PAC.

Cori Bush held the seat from 2021 to 2025. A progressive activist, registered nurse, and member of the Democratic Socialists of America, she lost the 2024 Democratic primary in a contest that drew heavy outside spending from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). She is running to reclaim the seat, centering her campaign on opposition to U.S. weapons transfers to Israel, Medicare for All, abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), and protecting reproductive rights. She has framed a potential primary victory as a direct repudiation of AIPAC's electoral influence. Her campaign has faced scrutiny over past allegations related to campaign finance and accusations involving her husband and COVID-19 pandemic loan fraud.

Alissa Murphy, a healthcare saleswoman, is also competing in the Democratic primary. Carl Harris Sr., described as a business consultant and Navy veteran, rounds out the field alongside Carl Henderson.

Two Republicans are competing to face the Democratic nominee in November. Paul Berry III has sought elected office multiple times in the St. Louis area, including a 2016 run in this same congressional district and a bid for St. Louis County Executive. Andrew Jones, also a repeat candidate for the 1st District seat, is a St. Louis businessman.

Tom Schmitz is running unopposed in the Libertarian primary.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside spending in the Missouri first congressional district primary has been modest, and it is concentrated entirely on one candidate.

The Working Families Party PAC leads all outside spenders with $14,879 in support spending. The Unity & Justice Fund has reported $1,684 in spending, and the People United PAC has put in $175. All three groups have spent in support of Cori Bush.

The only opposition spending in the race comes from the United Democracy Project (UDP), which has spent $22,643 against Bush. That single block of opposition spending outweighs all the pro-Bush outside money combined.

All candidates combined have raised more than $4 million according to Federal Election Commission.

Ratings vs. Odds

Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate Missouri's first District as Solid Democratic.

Prediction markets align with that assessment. Kalshi gives Democrats a 96.4% probability of holding the seat, with Republicans at 3.6%, as of July 29. The real question the market cannot fully answer is which Democrat will be on the November ballot.

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