Who's In the Race

Rep. John Mannion (D-NY) faces Republican Kailee Buller in the November 3 general election in New York's 22nd District. ​

Mannion won the seat in 2024, defeating then-incumbent Brandon Williams, after the district's boundaries were redrawn under a court order that changed its county composition. Both nominees ran unopposed in the June 23 Democratic and Republican primaries, according to NPR's AP results.

Mannion, a former New York State senator first elected in 2020, taught public-school science for nearly three decades, including 21 years of Advanced Placement Biology and Chemistry, and led the West Genesee Teachers' Association.

Buller is an Auburn native and former chief of staff to the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, where her campaign says she oversaw a department with a $200 billion operation and 100,000 employees; she also served as a CEO and national-policy organization leader and graduated from the University at Buffalo.

What They Stand For

Mannion has proposed expanding Medicare drug-price negotiation and capping out-of-pocket prescription costs, according to his official House website. He's also supported:

  • Paid sick leave, family and medical leave, and wider Medicare telehealth access,
  • Domestic agricultural incentives and opposition to tariffs he says raise farmers' costs,
  • Job training and employment services for service members and military spouses transitioning to civilian work; and
  • Protecting veterans' disability benefits and allowing combat-injured veterans to receive full retirement pay alongside disability compensation.

Buller has proposed restoring "opportunity and affordability" by focusing on good-paying jobs and lowering everyday costs for families, according to her campaign website. She's also supported:

  • Affordable childcare through targeted business tax credits, grants, and expanded child-care tax credits,
  • An "all-of-the-above energy policy," repealing what she calls costly climate mandates, and expanding American energy production,
  • Price transparency in health care, lower prescription-drug costs, protection for pre-existing-condition coverage and expanded rural and community care; and
  • Protecting Social Security and Medicare benefits, which she describes as "promises made to the American people."

The Money Behind the Race

Through June 30, Mannion had raised about $2.7 million and had about $1.8 million in the bank, roughly 10 times as much as Buller, who had raised about $267,000 and had about $187,000 on hand, according to Federal Election Commission filings; Mannion's cash on hand alone exceeds Buller's total fundraising by nearly $1.6 million. Mannion carries no campaign debt, while Buller carries $22,000 in debt as of June 30.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

All three major race-rating services view this as a safe Democratic hold. Cook Political Report rated the race "Solid Democratic" as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball agreed, also rating it "Solid Democratic" as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections likewise called it "Solid Democratic" as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is Mannion, a 94.38% chance of winning as of Oct. 16.

The district's recent history shows Democrats have held the seat but with thin margins. The Democratic winner's vote share in the 22nd District came in below 50% in both recent cycles: Francis Conole won in 2022 with about 49%, and Mannion won in 2024 with about 50%. Statewide, Democrats hold 19 of New York's 26 U.S. House seats after 2024, up from 18 of 26 after 2022. In the 2024 presidential race, Democrat Kamala Harris carried New York with about 55% of the vote.

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