Who's In the Race

Rep. Mike Kelly (R-PA) faces Democrat Justin Wagner and independent Nick Singelis in the November 3 general election in Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District. The district spans Butler, Crawford, Erie, Lawrence and Mercer counties, plus part of Venango County. ​

Kelly has represented the district since 2011, having built his career in his family's automobile dealership business before entering Congress. He ran unopposed in the May 19 Republican primary.

Wagner is a U.S. Army veteran who deployed to Iraq and South Korea, worked at a steel railcar plant while studying at ITT Technical Institute, and became an automation engineer after his military service; his campaign describes him as a veteran, engineer, and union advocate. Wagner also ran unopposed in the May 19 Democratic primary.

What They Stand For

Kelly has proposed reducing regulations he says impede investment and job creation, according to his campaign website. He's also supported:

  • An "all of the above" energy approach, including coal, natural gas, nuclear, biofuels, oil, solar and wind,
  • Local flexibility and accountability in education, and expanding parental choice,
  • Robust military funding and intelligence gathering while protecting civil liberties; and
  • Smaller government and lower, simpler taxes, arguing revenue should grow through more people working rather than higher rates.

Wagner has proposed defending Social Security benefits and opposing any cuts, raising the retirement age or privatization, including lifting the payroll-tax cap, according to his campaign website. He also supports:

  • Raising the federal minimum wage and tying it to inflation,
  • Banning hedge funds and private-equity firms from buying single-family homes and expanding federal support for affordable housing,
  • The PRO Act, workers' collective bargaining rights and stronger penalties for union-busting; and
  • Medicare for All and opposing cuts to Medicare and Medicaid.

The Money Behind the Race

Through June 30, Kelly had raised about $1.2 million and had about $1.3 million in the bank, roughly 35 times as much cash as Wagner, who had raised about $66,600 and had about $37,500 on hand, according to Federal Election Commission filings; Kelly's cash on hand exceeds Wagner's by about $1.3 million, and Kelly has raised roughly 17.5 times more overall. Kelly carried about $90,000 in debt as of that date, well under half his receipts.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Every major handicapper rates this race firmly in Kelly's column. Cook Political Report rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 19; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 2.

On Kalshi, traders gave Republicans, whose nominee is Kelly, a 95.3% chance of winning as of Oct. 20, while Democrats, whose nominee is Wagner, stood at 4.7%.

The district's recent history reinforces that picture. Kelly won the district with about 59% in 2022 and about 64% in 2024, a gain of about four percentage points. Statewide, Republicans won eight of Pennsylvania's 17 U.S. House seats in 2022 and ten in 2024, flipping the overall balance in the GOP's favor. Donald Trump carried Pennsylvania in the 2024 presidential race with about 50% of the vote.

---

AllCiv makes it easy to stay politically informed and involved.

---

Spot something wrong? Report an issue with this article