The Race

Rep. Keith Self (R-TX) is seeking re-election in Texas's third congressional district after defeating Mark Newgent in the Republican primary on March 3. He will face Evan Hunt (D-TX), who won the Democratic nomination, in the Nov. 3 general election, along with several third-party and independent candidates. The district includes much of Collin County and Hunt County in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex and has consistently favored Republicans in recent election cycles.

Campaign finance reflects Republicans' financial advantage in the race. According to the latest Federal Election Commission filings through June 30, Keith Self (R-TX) had raised $645,502.77 for his re-election campaign. Earlier reporting periods showed Democratic nominee Evan Hunt (D-TX) raising more than $330,000, though updated second-quarter filings should be used to report the most current fundraising totals before publication.

Ratings

The nation's leading election forecasters agree that Texas's third congressional district strongly favors Republicans. The Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, and Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball also project the district will remain in Republican hands. Together, the major forecasters indicate Self enters the general election with a substantial advantage.

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets also point to a Republican advantage. As of June 29, Kalshi traders gave Republicans a 92.73% probability of winning Texas's third congressional district, compared with 7.27% for Democrats. At the time, the market had recorded approximately 4,064 contracts traded.

Experts vs. Markets

Professional election forecasters and prediction markets point to the same likely outcome in Texas's third congressional district.

While traditional race ratings classify the district as Solid Republican, Kalshi assigns Republicans a 92.73% probability of victory. Both forecasting methods indicate Self enters the general election as the clear favorite, although the prediction market assigns a measurable possibility of a Democratic upset.

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