The Race

Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA) faces four challengers in Virginia’s 8th Congressional District Democratic primary on Aug. 4. Lorena Bruner, Michael Duffin, Adam Dunigan and Mo Seifeldein are competing against the six-term incumbent for the nomination.

The Democratic primary winner will face Tony Sabio (R-VA) in the Nov. 3 general election. Sabio became the Republican nominee without a contested primary after the other prospective Republican candidates withdrew or failed to qualify.

Virginia’s 8th District includes Alexandria, Arlington County, Falls Church and portions of Fairfax County. The Cook Political Report gives the district a D+26 Partisan Voting Index, making it the most Democratic-leaning congressional district in Virginia.

The Candidates

Don Beyer (D-VA) has represented the district since 2015 and is seeking a seventh term. He previously served as Virginia’s lieutenant governor and as U.S. ambassador to Switzerland and Liechtenstein. Beyer serves on the House Ways and Means Committee and the Joint Economic Committee.

Lorena Bruner is a military-family advocate who has worked on education, women’s rights and family policy. She had established a campaign committee but had not filed a campaign finance report with the Federal Election Commission as of late July.

Michael Duffin is a former State Department official whose work included countering terrorist propaganda. He was dismissed in July 2025 during federal workforce reductions and has emphasized federal employment, economic policy and public service in his campaign.

Adam Dunigan is a business executive and Army veteran. His campaign has drawn substantially more money than those of most of Beyer’s challengers, though much of his funding came from personal contributions and a candidate loan.

Mo Seifeldein is a former Alexandria City Council member and former Labor Department attorney. His campaign has emphasized government ethics, campaign finance and banking policy.

Tony Sabio (R-VA) is a military veteran and former Secret Service and CIA employee. He became the Republican nominee without appearing in a contested Aug. 4 primary. Heerak Christian Kim and Luke Nathan Phillips were previously associated with the Republican race but did not remain qualified candidates.

Show Us the Money

Candidates with available Federal Election Commission reports had raised at least $2.59 million through their most recent filings, although the committees’ coverage dates vary.

Beyer led the field with $2,125,761 in receipts and $838,934 in cash on hand through July 15. He had spent approximately $1.84 million during the election cycle.

Seifeldein reported $159,815 in receipts, $142,248 in disbursements and $17,568 in cash on hand through July 15.

Dunigan reported $247,639 in receipts and approximately $26,025 in cash on hand through June 30. His total included more than $106,000 in personal financing, consisting of candidate contributions and a $46,000 loan.

Duffin reported $35,184 in receipts and approximately $1,595 in cash on hand through June 30. Bruner had not filed a financial report as of late July.

Sabio reported $21,917 in receipts, $4,014 in disbursements and approximately $17,903 in cash on hand through July 15.

The FEC’s district-level aggregate tables displayed no independent expenditures, communication costs or electioneering communications for the race at the time of review. Those tables do not include independent expenditures disclosed only through 24- and 48-hour reports, however, so the available data does not conclusively establish that no outside spending of any kind occurred.

Ratings

The nation’s leading election forecasters agree that Virginia’s 8th District strongly favors Democrats.

The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Solid Democratic. Cook also assigns the district a D+26 partisan rating.

Prediction Markets

As of July 26, the Kalshi market cited in the original draft gave Democrats a 96% probability of winning the general election, compared with 4% for Republicans. The market had recorded approximately $12,946 in trading volume.

Those figures represent a dated snapshot because prediction-market prices and volume change continuously.

Experts vs. Markets

Professional election forecasters and prediction-market traders point to the same likely general-election outcome.

The major forecasters rate the district Solid Democratic, while the cited Kalshi market gave Democrats a 96% probability of victory. Both measures indicate that the Democratic primary is likely to be more consequential than the November contest, although neither guarantees the general-election result.

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