Florida's 21st Primary

Florida's 21st congressional district runs along the Treasure Coast, covering all of Martin and St. Lucie counties and part of northern Palm Beach County. It's reliably Republican territory, and this year's primary reflects that: Rep. Brian Mast (R-FL) faces no one in the GOP primary, which was canceled outright after no one else qualified to challenge him. Only the Democratic primary) will actually be held, on Tuesday, Aug. 18, with the winner moving on to face Rep. Mast on Tuesday, Nov. 3.

Florida runs closed primaries, meaning only voters registered with a party can vote in that party's contest; November's general-election ballot will also include a pair of no-party candidates. Under the district's previous boundaries, Mast turned back Democrat Thomas Witkop 61.8%-38.2% in 2024. Florida's map was redrawn ahead of this cycle, but the 21st remains solidly Republican ground.

The Candidates

Republican Party

Mast, first elected in 2016, is running for a sixth term. He's an Army veteran who lost both legs to an improvised explosive device while serving as a bomb disposal specialist in Afghanistan in 2010. He later earned a degree from Harvard Extension School and worked as an explosives specialist within the Department of Homeland Security before entering politics. In the 119th Congress, Mast chairs the House Committee on Foreign Affairs and also sits on the Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, where his focus has included Lake Okeechobee water discharges affecting the district's waterways.

Democratic Party

Two candidates are competing for the Democratic nomination.

James Martin) is a fourth-generation Floridian and a Lieutenant Commander in the U.S. Coast Guard Reserve. He served as Chief of Staff for National Security Affairs and Executive Secretary in the Office of the Vice President, a role he held under both Vice Presidents Kamala Harris and JD Vance before leaving in 2025. Martin raised more than $150,000 in his campaign's first 24 hours, and Harris has since endorsed him, calling him a devoted patriot who would be "ready to deliver on Day One."

Bernard Taylor is a firefighter from Port St. Lucie whose campaign has centered on economic growth, health care access and improving local schools.

The Democratic field has narrowed considerably since last year. Educator Pia Dandiya, who led the field in fundraising for months, shifted her campaign to Florida's newly drawn 22nd congressional district in May. Two other Democrats who initially entered, Edward O'Connor and Elizabeth Pandich, did not qualify for the Aug. 18 ballot.

The Money Behind the Race

Mast has reported $4,308,890 in total receipts this cycle against $3,151,810 in disbursements, leaving $2,928,458 in cash on hand as of July 29. On the Democratic side, Taylor has raised $993,380, spent $856,522 and has $151,968 on hand; Martin has raised $579,319, spent $391,274 and has $188,045 on hand.

The two Democrats' fundraising looks very different up close. Taylor's total is overwhelmingly small-dollar: $890,993 of it, nearly 90%, came from contributions of $200 or less. Martin's base skews toward bigger checks, with $252,400 coming from donors giving $2,000 or more, compared with just $22,500 for Taylor. Mast, unsurprisingly, has the deepest well of large-dollar support, pulling in $1.35 million from $2,000-plus donors alone.

Outside spending has been minimal. The only independent expenditure on the FEC's tracker for the race is $44,600 from PAVC PAC in support of Mast; no group has reported spending against any candidate.

Ratings vs. Odds

The general election isn't much of a mystery. Cook Political Report and Inside Elections both rate the seat Solid Republican, and Sabato's Crystal Ball calls it Safe Republican. Kalshi shows the same lean: as of 12:55 p.m. ET on Thursday, Aug. 13, Republicans were priced at a 90.5% chance of holding the seat in November against 10% for Democrats, on a thin $5,601 in trading volume.

The more interesting numbers are on the primary side. On Kalshi's Democratic-nomination market, Martin was trading at 72% to Taylor's 30% as of the same Thursday check, on $11,149 in volume. Martin leads with traders, but Taylor actually leads Martin in total money raised, $993,380 to $579,319, and built that total almost entirely from small donors. Martin's money leans more on institutional backers and larger checks, capped by the Harris endorsement, which likely explains why traders had him priced so heavily to begin with. As the primary nears, the market looks like it's correcting toward media relevance for Taylor over substantially more small-dollar support for Martin. With volume still in the low five figures on both markets, neither price should be read as settled.

Access the AllCiv platform for comprehensive political news, data, and insights.

---

Spot something wrong? Report an issue with this article