Ten candidates are fighting for the Republican nomination in Florida's 22nd Congressional District, and with no incumbent in the race, both parties head into their Aug. 18 primaries with an open field and an uncertain outcome.

Florida's 22nd District Primary

Florida's 22nd Congressional District sits in southeastern Florida, covering territory in the Palm Beach County area along the Atlantic coast. The seat is open: no incumbent is running, which helps explain the crowded Republican field. Candidates from both parties will compete in separate partisan primaries on Aug. 18. The winner of each party's primary advances directly to the general election, set for Nov. 3. Florida uses no top-two or ranked-choice system: one Republican and one Democrat emerge from the primaries to face each other in November.

Fifteen candidates are on the general election ballot across both parties, with 10 Republicans and two Democrats competing in their respective primaries on Aug. 18.

The Candidates

Democratic Primary

Pia Dandiya leads the Democratic field. A first-generation American born and raised in Palm Beach County to parents who immigrated from India, Dandiya built a career in education, becoming a high school principal in Harlem at age 28 before returning to Florida. She originally filed to challenge Rep. Brian Mast in the neighboring 21st District but shifted to the open FL-22 seat following redistricting. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) added her to its Red to Blue program, signaling national Democratic investment in her candidacy. She has also earned endorsements from Broward County leaders and EMILYs List.

Kaysia Monica Earley is the only other Democrat in the race. A Jamaican-American trial lawyer based in Plantation, in Broward County, Earley is running on a platform centered on faith, family, and economic opportunity.

Republican Primary

Casey Askar enters as the most establishment-backed Republican in the field. An Iraqi-born franchise businessman and U.S. Marine veteran based in Naples, Askar ran for Congress in 2020 in Florida's 19th District, spending $3.66 million before losing the Republican primary to Byron Donalds. In this race, he has assembled an endorsement coalition that includes Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R-FL), the first member of Congress to weigh in on the primary, Florida Senate President Kathleen Passidomo, and Collier County Sheriff Kevin Rambosk.

Michael Carbonara is drawing the most confirmed outside spending in the race. Belinda Keiser leads all candidates in pending outside expenditures. Terri Hasdorff, David Burck, Richard Evans, Michael Thompson, Antonio Srado, Anna Medvedeva, Sara Baxter, Deborah Adeimy, Steve Ávila, Lateresa Jones, and Herbie Wertheim also appear in the candidate data for the Republican primary. Verified biographical details for these candidates were not available at publication time.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside spending in Florida's 22nd District race is modest in confirmed dollars but carries a large volume of pending activity that has yet to be formally processed.

Confirmed independent expenditures total $45,333 through Aug. 10, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings. An additional $697,637 in pending notices brings the total potential outside spending to $742,970.

The largest confirmed outside spender is America's Renewal PAC, Inc., which has reported $45,323 in independent expenditures, all in support of a candidate. The committee has an additional $54,241 pending. American Pact has filed no confirmed expenditures but leads all outside groups with $497,750 in pending notices. Making Congress Great Again PAC has $44,504 pending with nothing yet confirmed. Sierra Club Independent Action rounds out the group with $10 in confirmed spending.

On a per-candidate basis, Republican Michael Carbonara is the top recipient of confirmed outside support: $45,323 from America's Renewal PAC, with $200,571 more pending. Republican Belinda Keiser has no confirmed outside spending but leads all candidates in pending notices at $344,420. Terri Hasdorff has $44,504 pending. David Burck has $7,000 pending. Democrat Lois J. Frankel, who appears in FEC filings tied to this district but ran her reelection in a different seat following redistricting, has $10 in confirmed support and $101,142 pending. No candidate has any confirmed opposition spending against them.

All $45,333 in confirmed outside spending supports Republican candidates, with the nominal $10 directed toward the Democrat with reported activity.

Among individual contributors, Sonia Rodriguez tops the available records with $6,980 across four contributions. Huck PAC for America, Maggie's List, and Michael Schwab each contributed $5,000. A large number of contributors gave $3,500, including George Albrecht, Steven Apple, John Baumann, Katie Brinkmann, Robert Burrage, Christopher Cowie, Susan Cowie, William J. Diamond, Daniel Glassman, Tony Guilfoyle, Steven D. Haymes, Anthony Hernandez, Britney Hernandez, Catherine Hoagland, Eric Javits, and Margaretha Javits. These figures represent a partial subset of contribution records for the race.

Ratings vs. Odds

Every major political forecaster rates this seat as Lean Republican. Cook Political Report assigned the district a "Lean Republican" rating as of July 16. Sabato's Crystal Ball followed with the same rating as of July 30. The consensus rating, as of Aug. 6, is Lean Republican across all three tracking organizations.

On Kalshi, Republicans are favored at 62.8% to Democrats' 37.3%, based on $61,205 in trading volume as of Aug. 7. The prediction market odds align closely with the ratings consensus. Both point to a competitive general election in November, with Republicans holding a structural but not commanding advantage in what is an open seat with no incumbent on either side.

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