Who's In the Race

Incumbent Republican Brian Mast faces Democrat James Martin in Florida's 21st Congressional District. Mast is a U.S. Army veteran who served as a bomb-disposal expert under the Joint Special Operations Command in Afghanistan, where he lost both legs and a finger and received the Defense Meritorious Service Medal. Martin describes himself as a fourth-generation Floridian, U.S. Coast Guard veteran, and national-security expert.

Mast won the district in 2024 with about 62 percent of the vote. He won it in 2022 with about 64 percent.

What They Stand For

Mast's official congressional site says he is focused on reducing financial worries, putting more money in people's pockets, and improving safety for children. He has introduced legislation to improve veterans' access to congressional services, including through a congressional office located at the West Palm Beach VA. His official issues page identifies protection of the St. Lucie River and replacement or improvement of the low, narrow railroad bridge as district priorities.

Martin says he is focused on the economy and cost of living, with the goal of putting more money in the pockets of working Floridians. His campaign also says he would address the Treasure Coast's clean-water crisis.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside groups have directed $63,250 into the race, all of it in support of candidates. An aggregation of seven records lists $63,250 under Republican candidates.

The outside spender is PAVC PAC, which accounts for the full $63,250. The committee leaderboard shows total spending only and does not indicate whether a committee supports or opposes any candidate.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race "Solid Republican" as of Sept. 25, Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it "Solid Republican" as of Sept. 29, and Inside Elections rated it "Solid Republican" as of Oct. 2.

On Kalshi, as of Oct. 5, Mast held a 93.69 percent win probability, and Martin held a 6.31 percent win probability.

In Florida's 2022 federal congressional races, Republicans won 20 contests, and Democrats won eight. Donald Trump carried Florida in the 2024 presidential election with about 56 percent of the vote.

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