Michigan's 11th District Primary

Four Democrats compete for the right to succeed Rep. Haley Stevens in Michigan's 11th Congressional District on Aug. 4, in what amounts to the decisive contest for the seat. Every major forecaster rates the district Solid Democratic, making the Democratic primary the race that matters in Michigan House District 11.

Michigan runs a traditional partisan primary. Each party holds a separate contest on the same date, with the top vote-getter advancing to the Nov. 3 general election. The Republican primary for this seat has just one candidate, so that nomination is uncontested. The Democratic field of four is where the real competition lies.

Stevens, the Democratic incumbent, is not seeking reelection to the House. She left the seat to run for the U.S. Senate, making this an open-seat contest for the first time in several cycles. Independents also appear on the general election ballot, bringing the total candidate count in November to 12.

The Candidates

The Democratic field features two candidates who have drawn the most attention and money heading into the Aug. 4 vote.

Jeremy Moss enters as the fundraising leader. A Southfield native, Moss has served in the Michigan Legislature since 2015, first in the state House and then the state Senate. He currently holds the title of Michigan Senate President Pro Tempore, making him the first openly queer person to serve in that role. As chair of the Michigan Senate Elections Committee, he led efforts on ballot access and voting rights legislation. Moss has drawn endorsements from Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, AFL-CIO Michigan, and AFSCME Council 25.

Aisha Farooqi is an attorney and former prosecutor. She serves on the Michigan Child Abuse and Neglect Prevention Board, an appointment made by Gov. Whitmer. Farooqi has earned the endorsement of the Michigan Democratic Party Progressive Caucus, positioning her as the progressive alternative in the race.

Also on the Democratic primary ballot: Michelle Murphy, Stu Baker, John Paul Torres, and Don Ufford.

On the Republican side, Ethan Baker is the sole candidate, so he advances to the general election without a contested primary. Baker serves as Mayor of Troy and sits on an advisory board for the U.S. Conference of Mayors. He has described his campaign as focused on "solving real problems instead of deepening division."

Anthony Paesano, Tony Prieto, and Michael Steger also appear in the Republican candidate data for the district but are not listed among the active Republican primary candidates in the official race record.

The Money Behind the Race

All candidates combined have raised $5,526,994 in this race, according to Federal Election Commission records. Outside spending, however, has been minimal. Through June 30, 2026, total independent expenditures reached just $381.81, with no communication costs reported.

DMFI PAC is the only outside group to have spent in the race, accounting for the entire $381.81. Every dollar went toward supporting Jeremy Moss. No outside group has spent money opposing any candidate in either primary.

Ratings vs. Odds

Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate Michigan's 11th as Solid Democratic, as of July 16, July 16, and June 30, respectively. The consensus rating, last updated July 23, matches: Solid Democratic.

Kalshi puts Democrats at 95% to win the general election, with Republicans at 5%, based on 515 contracts traded as of July 26. The thin trading volume reflects the broad agreement that this seat stays in Democratic hands. The outcome of the Aug. 4 Democratic primary among the 2026 Michigan primary election candidates, particularly the contest between Aisha Farooqi, Jeremy Moss, Michelle Murphy, and the rest of the field, will determine who carries that near-certain general election advantage into November.

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