Who's In the Race

Washington's 3rd U.S. House District race heads to a Nov. 3 general election with two candidates who finished within 263 votes of each other in the Aug. 4 top-two primary. Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, the incumbent, topped the primary with 54,132 votes. Republican John Braun followed with 53,869 votes, advancing from a nine-candidate field. [](#ngr-a33f8c68-a6db-452c-86d5-8d7f60903c2c)

What They Stand For

Gluesenkamp Perez centers her campaign on reproductive rights, describing herself as a "pro-choice mom" fighting to ensure women can access medical care for any reason.

On costs, her campaign says she is "working to bring down the cost of housing, increase choices for childcare options, and cut out the middlemen who jack up the cost of healthcare." She frames trade as a worker issue, saying she is "fighting unfair trade and work practices by competitors like China to create a level playing field for American workers." A signature legislative effort is the right to repair: her congressional office has highlighted bills guaranteeing farmers and servicemembers the right to fix their own equipment, including the Warrior Right to Repair Act of 2025. Her campaign also states she does not accept money from corporate PACs or drug companies, framing that as a mark of independence from special interests.

Braun, a retired U.S. Navy captain with 31 years in the submarine force and founder of an emergency-vehicle manufacturing company in Chehalis, opens his issues page by stating: "I entered this race focused on border security and the fentanyl crisis." He calls for completing high-priority border barriers, hiring more agents, deploying technology, tightening asylum rules, and targeting cartel supply chains.

On spending, his campaign uses the tagline "Run a Tight Ship" and pledges to "cut wasteful spending that feeds inflation, reduce red tape on small manufacturers, and protect the skilled-trades economy that powers Southwest Washington." On public safety, he says he will "shut down open-air drug markets, support local camping bans when shelter is available, supercharge fentanyl interdiction, and fund detox and mental-health beds." His homepage also lists protecting family-wage jobs and expanding trade for Washington agriculture as priorities.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside groups have reported $143,268 in independent expenditures in this race, split between $110,000 in opposition spending and $33,268 in support spending.

Outside money targeting the Democratic incumbent totals $130,000, while spending directed at the Republican nominee totals $13,268. The Republican total includes $110,000 in opposition spending against the Democrat and $20,000 in support spending for the Republican; all spending targeting the Democrat is in support.

Together for Working People leads all outside spenders with $110,000 in reported expenditures. Special Operations for America has reported $20,000. WelcomePAC has reported $13,268. The leaderboard data does not specify whether each committee's spending was in support of or opposition to a candidate.

Three additional committees, No Going Back PAC Inc., HMP, and America PAC, carry a combined $1.5 million in pending spending, meaning the race's outside-spending total could grow substantially.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

The Cook Political Report rates the race a Toss-up as of Sept. 11. Inside Elections also rates it a Toss-up, as of Sept. 17. Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean Democratic as of Sept. 22. The consensus rating across those sources, as of Sept. 23, is Lean Democratic.

On the prediction market Kalshi, the Democrat holds a 90 percent implied probability of winning as of Sept. 24, based on $113,958 in trading volume.

The district itself has been among Washington's most competitive: Gluesenkamp Perez won it in 2022 with just over 50 percent of the vote and again in 2024 with about 52 percent. Statewide, Washington has leaned Democratic in both recent cycles, with Democrats winning eight of 10 House seats and the Senate race in both 2022 and 2024.

Democrat Kamala Harris carried Washington in the 2024 presidential race with about 57 percent of the vote. The district's back-to-back near-50-percent finishes set it apart from the state's broader Democratic tilt, making it one of the few genuinely competitive seats in Washington heading into November.

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