Washington's 3rd District Primary

Nine candidates compete today, August 4, in Washington's 3rd Congressional District primary, where Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez seeks to hold a seat that national forecasters consider among the most competitive in the Pacific Northwest. The top-two primary sends the two highest vote-getters to the Nov. 3 general election.

The district covers southwestern Washington, anchored by Vancouver and Clark County along the Oregon border, then stretching north and west through Cowlitz, Lewis, and Skamania counties. It mixes suburban neighborhoods that share a media market with Portland with a largely rural interior, a combination that has kept the seat competitive across recent cycles.

Washington's nonpartisan top-two system places all candidates on a single ballot. Any two candidates can advance, meaning a same-party November matchup is possible, though not guaranteed. Parties represented on today's ballot include Democrats, Republicans, independents, and others.

The Candidates

Incumbent Gluesenkamp Perez faces Antony Barran (Cascade Party), Austin Braswell (D), John Braun (R), Brent Hennrich), Lawrence Kellogg (R), Troy Rasband (D), John Roco (R), and John Saulie-Rohman (Independent Party).

Gluesenkamp Perez has represented the district in the U.S. House since winning a narrow upset in 2022. Her committee assignments and specific legislative record highlights are not detailed in the available records, but her incumbency in a competitive district has drawn sustained national attention to the race. She is running for a third term.

The Money Behind the Race

Candidates in Washington's 3rd District primary have raised a combined $8,643,430, making it a well-funded contest by House primary standards. Outside groups have added $55,000 in independent expenditures on top of that total, according to Federal Election Commission data current through July 1.

A single committee, Together for Working People, accounts for all $55,000 in outside spending. Every dollar is directed against Braun: no outside money has been reported in support of any candidate in the race. Communication costs are zero.

The concentration of outside fire on one Republican candidate, with no corresponding support spending for any other, stands out in a nine-candidate field. Per-candidate fundraising breakdowns are not available in the records provided, so the $8.6 million total cannot be attributed across individual candidates.

Ratings vs. Odds

The consensus rating for the seat, compiled as of July 30, sits at Lean Democratic. The three major forecasters split slightly: Cook Political Report rated the race a Toss-up as of July 16, Inside Elections also called it a Toss-up as of June 30, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Lean Democratic as of July 30.

Prediction markets lean further toward Democrats than the ratings suggest. On Kalshi, the market for this seat gives the Democratic candidate an 80% probability of winning, against 20% for the Republican, based on $22,148 in trading volume as of Aug. 3. That gap between the forecasters' Toss-up calls and the market's 80-20 split reflects genuine uncertainty about how the competitive primary field will sort itself before November.

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