The Race
Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is defending her seat in Washington's 3rd U.S. House District, where the primary election happens August 4, and the general election follows on November 3. Nine candidates are vying for the nomination in what's shaping up to be a competitive race.
Ratings
The expert raters can't quite agree on Washington's 3rd. Cook Political Report calls it a Toss-up, as does Inside Elections. But Sabato's Crystal Ball leans Democratic.
Prediction Markets
According to Kalshi's live odds as of late June, Democrats sit at 83.84% to win the seat, while Republicans are at just 16.16%.
Experts vs. Markets
A few theories: bettors may be pricing in the power of incumbency (Perez is running for re-election), or they're reading deeper into local polling the national raters haven't fully digested.
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